Cereals Export Factors and Impact on Wheat Price in Russian Regions

The study describes the problems of wheat exports from Russian regions. Federation is one largest exporters grain. Taking into account development biotechnology in world, this type resource claims to be a «new oil.» In light this, Government set task doubling export agricultural products and raw materials until 2024. At same time, most promising areas are determined – India China. Speaking latter, China began 2014 by end 2020 accounts for less than 1 % total exports. It assumed that growth Asian direction should due regions Siberia (Krasnoyarsk Territory, Novosibirsk Region, Omsk Region Altai Territory), which have never been main wheat. regard, it becomes necessary update scientific provisions logistics doctrine based on results empirical studies factors debate issue rests different approaches determining significance factors. article provides an overview key modern approaches, including theories production potential. Based integrated approach, as well machine training methods, proposes analysis array monthly data 72 2007 2021 years, includes parameters As result, linear classifier model proposed, allows guessing status region with accuracy 96 market increase probability export, while potential (with exception flour production) reduce probability. This conclusion supports idea integral according primary deep grain processing regions, expected decrease, «free» reserves elevators leads Thus, taking these circumstances, proposals formed Siberian make possible offset negative impact not price situation within comply interests domestic processors traders